Wednesday, October 16, 2024

Who Will Win in this War?

**initially published 10/2022*

Breaking from the traditional content of my blog, in this post i will outline the pros and cons of strategies taken by Putin's Russia as well as NATO and non-NATO countries in achieving their objectives. I'm beginning to see a much larger picture develop, which i suspect most of the free world is ignoring or simply can't see. 

Over a month into the war, it's become apparent that Putin will not achieve his goal of subduing Ukraine in its entirety, though he will need to achieve something to safe face, possibly to save his position in power. i suspect he would now be content with annexing the Donbas region, in addition to his previous annexation of Crimea. This however would weaken Ukraine's strategic geographic strengths, losing access to many key shipping ports and at least two major cities. This however may not be tenable for Russia either in the long term as resistance will certainly remain. So can any winners emerge from this war? 

Russia and Ukraine are both suffering huge losses. The European union, claiming to be more united than ever is still somewhat fractured. NATO, claiming to be stronger than ever, has moved more defence forces and equipment to its eastern flank, the opposite of what Putin wished to achieve. Is this a "win" for NATO? Hardly, as it increases costs, and the danger of escalation, at the very least its a new and deeper cold war. 

Already struggling supply chains are increasingly crippling businesses throughout the world, from the inability to source goods from a war torn country to sanctions on anyone doing business in or with Russia. Western companies like Renault Daimler and Volkswagen are having to make painful decisions on whether to continue doing business in Russia or not. I suspect the sanctions may be causing more harm to western businesses than Russia itself. In a tit for tat move, the banning of russian media outlets in Europe, and the banning of western news in Russia hasn't helped improve any narrative towards peace.

Unrewarded Efforts

Ever feel like your effort has been unrewarding, or worse yet, unacknowledged? What if this was a pattern in your life? The self-esteem of children, who's efforts remain unacknowledged or unrewarded, be it in studies or in simply pleasing their parents, rarely find the motivation to accomplish anything in their youth, much less later in life. Praise and acknowledgement of small successes can lead to more success, while a lack of acknowledgement can sap what little motivation a child may have to accomplish something, or worse yet, cause them to rebel and prove they can accomplish something -good or bad, just to gain the acknowledgement they have lacked in life.

My parents rarely praised me for any accomplishments. I don't know how much this was a personal choice on their part or a typical Estonian trait, though i suspect a bit of both. Estonians, i have learned, are not ones to easily encourage or praise one another. Quite the contrary, they readily look for opportunities to criticise others, if for no other reason, to bolster their own lack of self esteem. It's actually been a vicious cycle within the Estonian community for centuries, almost a part of their DNA which is very difficult to break. 

I do understand where this comes from. Centuries of occupation has produced a slave mentality which is not easily broken. In the late 90's I suggested Estonia should increase targeted immigration (similar to what Singapore was doing), mostly to support economic growth and counter declining population trends. This idea was quickly shot down by would-be politicians, who argued that we need to protect our language and culture (though with a declining population, who'd eventually be left to teach our language and culture to?). Now I believe an influx of a "freer thinking" demographic would have also brought some positive change to the negative and critical Estonian mindset. 

Even schools today are not places where children find sufficient encouragement. I see this in my own children, who attend what some consider an "elite" school in the centre of Tallinn, Estonia. Not only the untenable burden of homework placed on 9-10 year olds, much of which gets assigned last minute, but the quick criticism of incomplete or poorly completed assignments sap the little motivation our kids have to study. And topics that they have mastered at home somehow get wiped from their memory in the high pressure school environment. My wife and I try to keep our boys encouraged, though we find ourselves frustrated -even oppressed, by the overwhelming performance demands and negative feedback our kids receive from their teachers. 

Of course, any attention brought to these issues usually brings a backlash from insecure teachers who have this critically negative mindset deeply ingrained within them. How can we break this mindset in our society, if it's what our children are exposed to on a daily basis? As i stated above, criticism creates one of two responses. Most become discouraged when their efforts are not rewarded, while few rise above the criticism to prove that they are better than the criticism, or at least better than the kids who crumble under it. 

Is this any way to build a society? This is exactly why more than ever, i see the need for increased immigration of positive minded people into Estonian society, starting with schools. I'm tired of constantly hearing about teacher shortages -this issue has not changed in 30 years. The world is full of teachers, maybe they are in more demand now than 20-30 years ago, but i'm sure quality teachers can be found and drawn to Estonia. However, there needs to be change. I believe half of the curriculum should be taught in English. 

English immersion across all schools would free up Estonian teachers to teach in schools which only now are converting from Russian to Estonian. In addition, the impact of English immersion in predominantly Russian speaking areas will both help expose youth to international media and a western perspective, as well as equip the country to better compete in drawing international investment (as it did in Singapore). 

Yet we as Estonians remain stuck in our ways, consuming ourselves with our negative and critical mindset. A slave mentality, which we have not succeeded in breaking - not even after 33 years of what many of us, unfortunately, have not understood freedom to be. Freedom to encourage and praise each others' efforts, and not to criticise and belittle one another just to feed our deeply ingrained insecurities.