Breaking from the traditional content of my blog, in this post i will outline the pros and cons of strategies taken by Putin's Russia as well as NATO and non-NATO countries in achieving their objectives. I'm beginning to see a much larger picture develop, which i suspect most of the free world is ignoring or simply can't see.
Over a month into the war, it's become apparent that Putin will not achieve his goal of subduing Ukraine in its entirety, though he will need to achieve something to safe face, possibly to save his position in power. i suspect he would now be content with annexing the Donbas region, in addition to his previous annexation of Crimea. This however would weaken Ukraine's strategic geographic strengths, losing access to many key shipping ports and at least two major cities. This however may not be tenable for Russia either in the long term as resistance will certainly remain.
So can any winners emerge from this war?
Russia and Ukraine are both suffering huge losses. The European union, claiming to be more united than ever is still somewhat fractured. NATO, claiming to be stronger than ever, has moved more defence forces and equipment to its eastern flank, the opposite of what Putin wished to achieve. Is this a "win" for NATO? Hardly, as it increases costs, and the danger of escalation, at the very least its a new and deeper cold war.
Already struggling supply chains are increasingly crippling businesses throughout the world, from the inability to source goods from a war torn country to sanctions on anyone doing business in or with Russia. Western companies like Renault Daimler and Volkswagen are having to make painful decisions on whether to continue doing business in Russia or not. I suspect the sanctions may be causing more harm to western businesses than Russia itself. In a tit for tat move, the banning of russian media outlets in Europe, and the banning of western news in Russia hasn't helped improve any narrative towards peace.
No comments:
Post a Comment