Who Will Win in this War?

**initially published 10/2022*

Breaking from the traditional content of my blog, in this post i will outline the pros and cons of strategies taken by Putin's Russia as well as NATO and non-NATO countries in achieving their objectives. I'm beginning to see a much larger picture develop, which i suspect most of the free world is ignoring or simply can't see. 

Over a month into the war, it's become apparent that Putin will not achieve his goal of subduing Ukraine in its entirety, though he will need to achieve something to safe face, possibly to save his position in power. i suspect he would now be content with annexing the Donbas region, in addition to his previous annexation of Crimea. This however would weaken Ukraine's strategic geographic strengths, losing access to many key shipping ports and at least two major cities. This however may not be tenable for Russia either in the long term as resistance will certainly remain. So can any winners emerge from this war? 

Russia and Ukraine are both suffering huge losses. The European union, claiming to be more united than ever is still somewhat fractured. NATO, claiming to be stronger than ever, has moved more defence forces and equipment to its eastern flank, the opposite of what Putin wished to achieve. Is this a "win" for NATO? Hardly, as it increases costs, and the danger of escalation, at the very least its a new and deeper cold war. 

Already struggling supply chains are increasingly crippling businesses throughout the world, from the inability to source goods from a war torn country to sanctions on anyone doing business in or with Russia. Western companies like Renault Daimler and Volkswagen are having to make painful decisions on whether to continue doing business in Russia or not. I suspect the sanctions may be causing more harm to western businesses than Russia itself. In a tit for tat move, the banning of russian media outlets in Europe, and the banning of western news in Russia hasn't helped improve any narrative towards peace.

Unrewarded Efforts

Ever feel like your effort has been unrewarding, or worse yet, unacknowledged? What if this was a pattern in your life? The self-esteem of children, who's efforts remain unacknowledged or unrewarded, be it in studies or in simply pleasing their parents, rarely find the motivation to accomplish anything in their youth, much less later in life. Praise and acknowledgement of small successes can lead to more success, while a lack of acknowledgement can sap what little motivation a child may have to accomplish something, or worse yet, cause them to rebel and prove they can accomplish something -good or bad, just to gain the acknowledgement they have lacked in life.

My parents rarely praised me for any accomplishments. I don't know how much this was a personal choice on their part or a typical Estonian trait, though i suspect a bit of both. Estonians, i have learned, are not ones to easily encourage or praise one another. Quite the contrary, they readily look for opportunities to criticise others, if for no other reason, to bolster their own lack of self esteem. It's actually been a vicious cycle within the Estonian community for centuries, almost a part of their DNA which is very difficult to break. 

I do understand where this comes from. Centuries of occupation has produced a slave mentality which is not easily broken. In the late 90's I suggested Estonia should increase targeted immigration (similar to what Singapore was doing), mostly to support economic growth and counter declining population trends. This idea was quickly shot down by would-be politicians, who argued that we need to protect our language and culture (though with a declining population, who'd eventually be left to teach our language and culture to?). Now I believe an influx of a "freer thinking" demographic would have also brought some positive change to the negative and critical Estonian mindset. 

Even schools today are not places where children find sufficient encouragement. I see this in my own children, who attend what some consider an "elite" school in the centre of Tallinn, Estonia. Not only the untenable burden of homework placed on 9-10 year olds, much of which gets assigned last minute, but the quick criticism of incomplete or poorly completed assignments sap the little motivation our kids have to study. And topics that they have mastered at home somehow get wiped from their memory in the high pressure school environment. My wife and I try to keep our boys encouraged, though we find ourselves frustrated -even oppressed, by the overwhelming performance demands and negative feedback our kids receive from their teachers. 

Of course, any attention brought to these issues usually brings a backlash from insecure teachers who have this critically negative mindset deeply ingrained within them. How can we break this mindset in our society, if it's what our children are exposed to on a daily basis? As i stated above, criticism creates one of two responses. Most become discouraged when their efforts are not rewarded, while few rise above the criticism to prove that they are better than the criticism, or at least better than the kids who crumble under it. 

Is this any way to build a society? This is exactly why more than ever, i see the need for increased immigration of positive minded people into Estonian society, starting with schools. I'm tired of constantly hearing about teacher shortages -this issue has not changed in 30 years. The world is full of teachers, maybe they are in more demand now than 20-30 years ago, but i'm sure quality teachers can be found and drawn to Estonia. However, there needs to be change. I believe half of the curriculum should be taught in English. 

English immersion across all schools would free up Estonian teachers to teach in schools which only now are converting from Russian to Estonian. In addition, the impact of English immersion in predominantly Russian speaking areas will both help expose youth to international media and a western perspective, as well as equip the country to better compete in drawing international investment (as it did in Singapore). 

Yet we as Estonians remain stuck in our ways, consuming ourselves with our negative and critical mindset. A slave mentality, which we have not succeeded in breaking - not even after 33 years of what many of us, unfortunately, have not understood freedom to be. Freedom to encourage and praise each others' efforts, and not to criticise and belittle one another just to feed our deeply ingrained insecurities.

Performance trap

Saturday i accompanied my wife to a Sunday school reunion. There were many people i didn't know, some i was acquainted with, and others whom I've worked with in ministry or been close friends with years ago. 

A couple of these old acquaintances threw me a bit off, by the way they greeted me. One, whom with close to 30 years ago shared our hearts with one another, gave a superficial greeting, not even asking how i'm doing or how life has been. The last time we sat down and talked was about 5 years ago, but not about anything personal, but what was for him a possible business opportunity -which i turned down for multiple reasons. I don't know if he's become more superficial over the years, or taking a more judgemental view of others from what i perceive perhaps to be his broken vantage point.

The other fellow, whom i expected to be more personal in his approach to greeting me, never asked "how are you doing", but proceeded to ask "What are you doing these days?". It was immediately clear that he was assessing and valuing me by my performance and achievements, without taking any interest in how i am doing. I felt immediately uncomfortable with his questions, understanding which school of thinking has influenced his views and vantage points. I shared a sliver of what I've been doing but shared more on family, but then I asked how he is doing -to which he answered "fine". Our conversation quickly ended with that. He later shared with the larger group his achievements, without even mentioning his family or anything truly personal about his life.

Then a third fellow, who gave me the first taste of corrupt Estonian business culture some 20+ years ago -to date unresolved, greeted me very briefly, we exchanged hellos and that's about it. However, in the larger group he shared from his heart, about his recollections of Sunday school, indiscretions of his youth and even offered an apology for some of his childhood antics. At the end he struck me as being more sincere than these other two fellows who seemed to display themselves as more ambitious and perhaps more righteous.

I don't want to judge, I'm the last to be qualified to do that, but it all caused me to think of what we value most in this life. One speaks what is in one's heart. One's heart is where their treasure is. So what these people said, spoke a lot about their hearts.

I'm not saying we shouldn't work hard, achieve and perform. Of course it's a necessary part of life.  But what is it that our heart is focused on? What are the words we greet others with? Are we more interested in hearing about achievements rather than hearing about the individual, his heart, his vision, his troubles, his concerns. Do we avoid heart topics with others - or worse ourselves, by hiding behind the performance trap?

MindSet or Mind un-Set

It's been a while since i've posted here, last time over a 18 months ago. Life has been busy. Life has also been quite unsettling, stressful and frustrating, particularly over the past three months. Not going to divulge all the personal stress i've endured, but perhaps look more at social stress the community surrounding me creates and endures under itself. A lot, though not all stress is our own doing, some is certainly due to surrounding circusmtances, but also a by-product of the state of our mind in how we respond and resolve critical issues.

MindSet. It's an interesting word. A noun describing an established set of attitudes held by an individual or group of people. It's another word for mentality, though the word "mindset" seems more definitive in nature.

It's also a compound word. Mind + Set.

"Mind" is the part of a person which enables them to be aware of the world around them, to think, feel and most importantly gives one the ability to reason. In Isaiah 1:18 the prophet relays the following message from God: "Come let us reason together". Reasoning seems to be more of challenge to delve deeper in thought rather than simply think within the limiting framework of our knowledge and experience.

"Set" can mean adjusting "setting a watch to the correct time", or "setting" something in a specific place, or even hardening or "setting" of liquid to solid. Each meaning of the word "set" is defined by a concrete action resulting in a relatively unchanging or immovable state. It can be defined in both positive and negative contexts.

So what "MindSet" should we have, or do our minds need to be "un-Set" to properly reason, as God calls us to? We all have gathered knowledge and experiences which form our opinions and views. Can any of us really think with an open mind? Can we truly reason? Human nature is interesting in the fact that we generally want confidence and security in what we believe, so our minds tend to gather information which confirm our beliefs rather than upset them. This is called "selective thinking", and we all do it to a certain degree. We like to think of ourselves of having an open mind, but the reality of our thinking is often skewed by our own mindset. Yes, all our minds have been "set" to one degree or another.

Yesterday i spent several hours online debating economics and monetary policy with a friend who has a different "mindset" to mine on this topic. He seems to think a specific cryptocurrency will solve most the world's economic problems, while i have some serious doubts. In our discussions i like to believe i have a more open and broader mindset, but this might not be true. Just like him, i base much of my views and arguments on my personal knowledge and experience. Our knowledge base is not all that different but our experiences have been drastically different, and this skews our respective views. As we both tried to "reason" with one another, clear differences in our views remain.

Politics often plays games with the mindset of the public. Embedding ideas while systematically confirming these ideas through various channels can create mindsets not capable of reasoning. Authoritarian leaders have used this "mind setting" strategy for centuries to gain power and retain power. It doesn't matter what the narrative is, as long as it is serving the authoritarian power. People who reason are shot down, both figuratively as well as literally. Reasoning is not encouraged much in politics, even when politiciions encourage people to "think", what they are really doing is "setting up" what the public should think to serve their purposes.

I see a similar "mindset" danger in my kids. They get an idea in their head from who knows where, that they can't do something, or that they must do something, then they gather information which confirms what they believe rather than thinking and reasoning things out. They are not stupid, just don't know how to adequately reason yet. If there's something i want to impart to my kids, it is the ability to reason and not just think within the limits of their current information and understanding. It is the basis for growth and gaining new knowledge about life as well as oneself.

So how does one "un-Set" the mind, to be more capable of learning and reasoning. This is also critical for dealing with crisis, that befalls most every one of us at some point in our lives. It's certainly easier said than done. Our knowledge and experiences directly impact our responses both in discussions/debates, as well as in times of crisis. It takes a very conscious effort, to be aware of the information or experiences which have set our minds to think in a certain way, and challenging that mindset. What is the basis of what i believe? Is there another vantage point i have not considered? What would i believe if my experience was different? How do ideas and concepts instilled in me from childhood on effect my views, decisions, and responses?

"Un-Setting" the mind is not easy or comfortable. There are thought patterns or "ruts" embedded in our minds which we easily fall back into. Yet the challenge was presented to us thousands of years ago: "Come let us reason together". It's not only the best approach to honestly address and clear sin from our lives, but to develop our thinking and reasoning abilities. Let's "un-Set" our minds and learn how to reason.